Canadian Home Prices Fell For the Ninth Consecutive Month As Activity Slowed.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show home sales edged down in November. National home sales fell 3.3% between October and November, continuing the moderating sales trend that began last February on the precipice of unprecedented monetary policy tightening. Sales are down a whopping 39% from a year ago. The Bank of Canada has hiked their overnight policy rate by 400 bps, from 25 bps to 4.25%, triggering a whopping rise in mortgage rates.

About 60% of all local markets saw lower sales in November, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November 2022 came in 38.9% below a near-record for that month last year. It stood about 13% below the pre-COVID-19 10-year average for November sales (see chart below).

New Listings

Sellers remain on the sidelines as the number of newly listed homes edged down last month by 1.3%, declining 6.1% from a year ago. Most sellers are waiting for interest rates to fall, either because they expect a rebound in sellers or are unwilling to buy new properties themselves with mortgage rates so high.

While sales have swung wildly, new listing flows have remained relatively steady through the recent turbulence and are very much in line with pre-COVID norms. There’s still not a lot of forced selling, which can exacerbate a price correction.

New listings fell in slightly more than half of the local markets. Among the larger markets in Canada, month-over-month movements in new supply were generally small, the only exception being some more significant declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions.

In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market. With the one exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years.

With sales down month-over-month by a little more than new listings in November, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 49.9% compared to 50.9% in October. The ratio has remained close to around 50% since May. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1%.

Based on a comparison of the current sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about 70% of local markets are currently in balanced market territory.

There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2022. This is close to where this measure was in the months leading up to the initial COVID-19 lockdowns and still nearly a full month below its long-term average.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.4% month-over-month in November 2022, continuing the trend that began in the spring.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI now sits about 11.5% below its peak level. Breaking that down regionally, the general trend is prices are down somewhat more than they are nationally in Ontario and parts of B.C. and down by less elsewhere. While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks at all.

The table below shows the decline in MLS-HPI benchmark home prices in Canada and selected cities since prices peaked in March when the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates. More details follow in the second table below. The most significant price dips are in the GTA and the GVA, where the price gains were spectacular during the COVID-shutdown.

Bottom Line
OSFI announced this morning that the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages at federally regulated financial institutions would remain unchanged. They will review Guideline B-20 next month, but don’t hold your breath for an easing of the stress test.

In other news, housing starts were little changed last month at 264,600 annualized units. This is a strong level of new construction; the year-to-date average is roughly 265,000 units. Combined with the record 275,000 new units started last year, we are in line for the most significant two-year wave of housing starts on record. On a per-capita basis, we’re starting 2023 with an unprecedented construction boom despite higher costs, labour shortages and much higher interest rates.

Outlook   

The Bank of Canada is likely to raise the policy rate a couple of times by 25 bps in the first half of next year, pausing between rate hikes. They will not cut rates in 2023 even though the economy will post at least a mild contraction.

2024 will be a recovery year but don’t expect the overnight rate to return to the pre-Covid level of 1.75%. Indeed, the new cycle low will likely be more like 2.5% assuming inflation continues to trend downward. Price growth will be much more subdued than during the rocking ten-year period before the pandemic. Still, the underlying fundamentals of rapid population growth, mainly from immigration, bode well for sustained growth going forward.

Effective January 1, 2023, foreign buyers will be prohibited from purchasing residential property in Canada for a period of two years in an attempt to address the inflation of housing prices. The following article highlights the key points in the policy.

Foreign Buyer Ban in Effect January 1, 2023

The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Actwill be in effect as of January 1, 2023. The Act prohibits non-citizens and non-permanent residents from purchasing residential property in Canada for two years. This is a response from the Government on Canada on the public concerns surrounding the inflation of housing prices.

The Act also restricts non-Canadians from using corporations or other entities to purchase residential property to avoid the ban. Both the non-Canadian purchaser of prohibited property and any person or entity that knowingly assists in the purchase can be fined up to $10,000 and the property can be forced to be sold.

The Act will not apply to temporary residents; non-Canadians who purchase residential property with their spouse or common-law partner as long as the spouse or common-law partner is eligible to purchase residential property in Canada; protected persons; and for other prescribed circumstances. The government’s consultation paper proposed that certain exemptions will be given to students and workers eligible for work permits who meet certain criteria.

The final regulations outlining how the prohibitions will work have not yet been released. The regulations will provide greater clarity on the Act, including any exceptions. We will continue to keep you informed of any developments as they arise.

How does the Foreign Buyer Ban Impact Mortgage Professionals?

Mortgage professionals, along with realtors, lawyers and notaries owe their clients an obligation to inform. The legislation does not rely on mortgage professionals to enforce the ban, however it does allow for penalties to be imposed on any party found guilty of knowingly assisting those restricted under the act in violating the prohibition.

Written by: Jasmine Toor, Director of Public Relations, Mortgage Professionals of Canada

3 Advantages of a Pre-Approval.

While getting pre-qualified can give you a ballpark estimate on what you can afford, getting pre-approved is where the real magic happens.

Mortgage pre-approval means that a lender has stated (in writing) that you do qualify for a mortgage and what amount, based on submitted documentation of your current income and credit history.

A pre-approval usually specifies a term, interest rate and mortgage amount and is typically valid for a brief period of time, assuming various conditions are met.

There are three benefits to pre-approval including:

1. It confirms the maximum amount you can afford to spend

Not only does getting pre-approved make the search easier for you, but helps your real estate agent find the best home in your price range. Temptation will always be to start looking at the very top of your budget, but it is important to remember that there will be fees, such as mandatory closing costs, which can range from 1 to 4% of the purchase price. Factoring these into your maximum budget can help you narrow down a home that is entirely affordable and ensure future financial stability and security.

2. It can secure you an interest rate for 90-120 days while you shop for your new home

Getting pre-approved doesn’t commit you to a single lender, but it does guarantee the rate offered to you will be locked in from 90 to 120 days which helps if interest rates rise while you are still shopping. If interest rates actually decrease, you would still be offered the lower rate. Another benefit to pre-approval is that, when it comes time to purchase, pre-approval lets the seller know that securing financing should not be an issue. This is extremely beneficial in competitive markets where lots of offers may be coming in.

3. It lets the seller know that securing financing should not be an issue

Lastly, pre-approval lets the seller know that you are able to make the purchase. This can be very helpful in competitive markets where lots of offers may be coming in, as it helps to inform the seller that you’re a sure thing versus other potential bidders who may not have pre-approval.

Keep in mind, once you get your pre-approval, you will want to make sure not to jeopardize it. Until your mortgage application and sale is completed, be sure you don’t quit or change jobs, buy a new car or trade up, transfer large sums of money between bank accounts, leave your bills unpaid or open up new credit cards. You do not want your financial or employment details to change at all until you have closed on the new mortgage.

If you have any questions or want to get your pre-approval started today, don’t hesitate to reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional!

“Written by My DLC Marketing Team”

So, You Want To Be A Landlord?

Are you dreaming about owning a rental property and making some extra income each month? Before diving into becoming a landlord, there are some things you should know from the advantages and disadvantages to some tips when it comes to buying a rental property.

Advantages of Owning a Rental Property

If you’re looking to purchase a property for rental and become a landlord, you are likely already aware of some of these advantages, but just in case, some benefits to this include:

• Earning additional regularly monthly income
• Allows you to continue to build home equity in the property(s) that you rent
• Ability to deduct certain items from your gross rental income such as mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, maintenance costs, property management fees and utilities.

Disadvantages of Owning a Rental Property

As with any investment, there are also some disadvantages to owning a rental property, which are important to consider before you make the leap. These can include:

• Responsibility of maintaining the rental property and managing your tenant(s)
• Rental income is taxable and must be included on your income tax. Depending on the value of the extra income, it may push you into a higher tax bracket.
• Unexpected expenses and issues may crop up over time. It is ideal to budget 2% of the purchase price of your property for potential repairs. You’ll also want to keep some money aside should your tenant leave and you need to cover a few months to find a new tenant.
• If you choose to sell the rental property in the future, it will be subject to capital gains tax.

What to Know BEFORE You Buy

Before getting started, it is important to calculate the cost of your investment (purchase price and closing costs), as well as consider maintenance amounts (approximately 1% of the property value for the year) and compare to current rental prices to be sure it is a profitable investment before purchasing. In addition, note the following:

• The minimum down payment required is 20% of the purchase price, and the funds must come from your own savings; you cannot use a gift from someone else. Another option is to utilize existing equity in your primary residence and refinance for the cash to purchase your rental or investment property. Be sure to factor in funds for closing costs, potential repairs and maintenance in your amount.
• Only a portion of the rental income can be used to qualify and determine how much you can afford to borrow. Some lenders will only allow you to use 50% of the income added to yours, while other lenders may allow up to 80% of the rental income and subtract your expenses.
• Interest rates usually have a premium when the mortgage is for a rental property versus a mortgage for a home someone intends on living in. The premium can be anywhere from 0.10% to 0.20% on a regular 5-year fixed rate.

Final Tips on Becoming a Landlord

If you’ve decided to move forward with getting a rental property and becoming a landlord, here are some tips to consider:

• Don’t forget about insurance! Ensure you have proper coverage for a rental situation and to cover any unforeseen events.
• Educate yourself on what it means to be a landlord in your province from tenant laws to rental responsibilities.
• Do your research on rental rates and locations before you choose to buy so that you are aware of where the market is at when it comes to potential earning power.
• Choose the right mortgage for your rental property. Your mortgage broker can help you with this!
• If you’re looking to run multiple rental properties, consider hiring a property manager who can be a go-between with you and the tenants.

With the right purchase price and rental costs per month, a rental property can be a great way to supplement income. If you’re looking to purchase an investment property, be sure to reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage expert to discuss your options and understand what is required.

“Written by My DLC Marketing Team”

By now we have all digested the latest interest rate hike but if you are like the many, who are in a variable mortgage, I am equally sure that you are wondering if we are getting close to the interest rate ceiling.  Dominion Lending Centres Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper discusses her thoughts on future hikes and what she projects that we will see when the Bank of Canada meets next on January 25th.

Bank of Canada Hikes Overnight Rate 50 bps to 4.25%.

the bank of canada hiked rates the full 50 bps

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points today to 4.25% and signalled that the Council would “consider whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target.” This is more dovish language than in earlier actions where they asserted that rates would need to rise further. Some have interpreted this new press release to imply that the Bank of Canada will now pause or pivot. I disagree.

I expect there will be additional rate hikes next year, but they will be more measured and not on every decision date. I also feel that the Bank will refrain from cutting the policy rate until 2024.

The Bank told us today that the “longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.”  CPI inflation remained at 6.9% in October, “with many of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases. Measures of core inflation remain around 5%. Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high, and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated.”

The economy remains in excess demand, and the labour market is very tight. The jobless rate in November fell to 5.1%, and job vacancies increased in September. Wage inflation came in at 5.6% y/y in November for the second consecutive month, marking six straight months of wage inflation above 5%. While headline and core inflation have moderated from their recent peaks, they exceed the 2% target by a large measure.

The Bank will monitor incoming data, especially regarding the overheated labour market where the jobless rate is at historic lows. Housing has slowed sharply in recent months, but as long as labour markets are tight, a slowdown in other sectors will be muted. The Bank now says it expects the economy “to stall” in the current quarter and the first half of next year.

Bottom Line

This will likely be the last oversized rate hike this cycle. The Governing Council next meets on January 25. Whether they raise rates will be data-dependent. If they do, it will likely be by 25 bps. Even if they pause at that meeting, it does not rule out additional moves later in the year if excess demand persists. I expect further monetary tightening, the continued bear market in equities, and a further correction in house prices.

Canadian benchmark home prices are already down nearly 10% nationwide. Several chartered banks told us this week that more than 25% of the remaining amortizations for their residential mortgages are 35 years and more. At renewal, these institutions expect to grant mortgages amortized at 25 years, which implies a substantial rise in monthly payments. That may well be three or four years away, but clearly, many households could be pinched unless mortgage rates plunge in the interim. I do not see the policy rate falling to its pre-Covid level of 1.75% over that period because inflation back then was less than 2%, an improbable circumstance as we advance. Although supply constraints may be easing, globalization has peaked. Semiconductors produced in the US will not be as cheap, and many rents, prices, and wages will be very sticky.

“Written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper”