General

Fixed mortgage rates are rising. What’s the deal?

General Christopher Rooke 20 Apr

Many people have mortgage renewals on the horizon and have been waiting with anticipation for interest rates to fall.  You keep hearing that they will but then you see the five year fixed rates rising?  What’s going on here?  For more insight into this and where fixed rates are going in the short term click the link below.

 

Fixed mortgage rates are rising. What’s the deal?

variable-rate mortgage holders eagerly anticipate the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut, fixed rates are heading in the other direction: up.

After peaking in early October, Government of Canada bond yields—which lead fixed mortgage rates—plummeted by 125 basis points, or 1.25 percentage points, by early January.

Since reaching that low, they’ve rebounded by approximately 60 bps, with around 25-bps worth of those gains seen in the past three weeks. As a result, fixed mortgage rates are being taken along for the ride.

Strong economic data to blame

Rate expert Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage says 2- to 5-year fixed mortgage rates are up across various lenders by anywhere from 15 to 30 bps in recent weeks.

Butler says the gains are being driven primarily by recent U.S. data, including strong employment, GDP and inflation figures.

As we reported earlier this month, U.S. CPI inflation in March was up 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% on an annualized basis. That caused some economists to speculate that U.S. rate cuts could get pushed out to later this year, or potentially even until next year.

On Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to confirm those calls when he said a “lack of further progress” on the inflation front could lead to interest rates staying higher “for as long as needed.”

In Canada, where GDP growth and employment have held up better than expected, markets still see the first Bank of Canada rate cut being delivered at either its June or July rate meetings, though that can always change.

Where could fixed rates go from here?

Rate expert and mortgage broker Ryan Sims, who predicted the rise in rates in a CMT columnpublished earlier this month, thinks fixed rates still have some room to rise.

“I still see mortgage rates going up, although I would think another 20 to 30 bps would do it,” he told CMT. “The gap between fixed and variable is too much, and the bond market had priced in a lot of cuts that I don’t think will happen for a lot longer than people thought.”

The average deep-discount 5-year fixed rate available for insured mortgages (those with a down payment of less than 20%) is currently around 4.79%. “I think we see it get to 5.29%,” Sims said.

While fixed rates are widely expected to resume their decline once Bank of Canada rate cuts are imminent, Sims says there’s a wildcard that should be considered: that fixed rates continue to rise even as the BoC’s benchmark rate falls.

“Canada’s fiscal policy is in bad shape, and I think you could see government bonds, and by default mortgage rates, pick up—regardless of [BoC Governor] Tiff Macklem dropping overnight rates,” he said. Rate cuts that are delivered too soon could be seen as a “panic move” by international markets and help drive yields higher, he notes.

“People forget that interest rates are about perceived risk, and after [this week’s] budget, risk in Canada, at least from an investing perspective, went up,” Sims added. “I could easily see another 20 to 30 bps into Canada government yields over the next 12 to 18 months just on risk—regardless of what overnight rates actually do.”

 

Written by:  Steve Huebl for Canadian Mortgage Trends (April 18, 2024)

Still no recession in Canada

General Christopher Rooke 29 Feb

For those that follow the Gross Domestic Product  (GDP) figures, the lastest numbers show a slightly better than expected result and Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres, explains how she believes this will influence the trend setting Bank of Canada rate when they meet on March 6th.  

 

Still No Recession In Canada Thanks to Huge Influx of Immigrants

Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by Statistics Canada, showed that December came in flat, well below the robust flash estimate, while the January preliminary estate was a strong +0.4% (subject, of course, to revision). The January uptick was driven by the return of Quebec public servants and a mild winter.

The fourth quarter growth was fuelled by higher oil exports and was moderated by a significant decline in business investment. Housing investment declined again in Q4–a sixth decline in the last seven quarters. Despite increased activity in Q4 new residential construction and renovations, it was more than offset by a large drop in home ownership transfer costs, reflecting the weakening resale market across Canada. Single-family units and apartments led the rise in new construction, as all provinces and territories, except Prince Edward Island, post a rise in housing starts.

Investment in non-residential structures fell sharply, as did spending on machinery and equipment, especially on aircraft and other transportation equipment. Even government spending declined.
Bottom Line

This is the last major economic release before the Bank of Canada meets again on March 6. The central bank will hold interest rates steady at next week’s meeting, and while some are suggesting the first rate cut this cycle will be as soon as the April confab, the consensus remains at June. With the uptick in growth in Q4, there is no urgency for the Bank to ease.

Policymakers will wait for their favourite core inflation measures to fall within the 1%-to-3% target band. They know that GDP per capita is falling and that mortgage renewals at higher interest rates will dampen household discretionary income. That’s why a June rate cut is widely expected.
Written by : Dr. Sherry Cooper (Dominion Lending Centres Chief Economist)

 

Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked

General Christopher Rooke 21 Nov

According to Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres, the Bank of Canada expects the Consumer Price Index to average 3.5% through mid 2024 and is forecasting hitting its 2% target in the second half of 2025.  With these indicators in mind, it appears that we have seen the peak in rates and look forward to greater predictability and no further rate hikes.

 

Today’s inflation report showed a continued improvement, mainly due to falling year-over-year (y/y) gasoline prices. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% y/y, down from the 3.8% rise in September. There were no surprises here, so markets moved little on the news. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.6% in October, compared to 3.7% the month before.

The most significant contributors to inflation remain mortgage interest costs, food purchased at stores, and rent.

Canadians continued to feel the impact of rising rent prices, which grew faster (y/y) in October (+8.2%) than in September (+7.3%). The national increase reflected acceleration across most provinces. The most significant increases in rent prices were seen in Nova Scotia (+14.6%), Alberta (+9.9%), British Columbia (+9.1%) and Quebec (+9.1%).

Property taxes and other special charges, priced annually in October, rose 4.9% yearly, compared with a 3.6% increase in October 2022. The national increase in October 2023 was the largest since October 1992, with homeowners paying more in all but one province, as municipalities required larger budgets to cover rising costs. Property taxes in Manitoba (-0.3%) declined for the third consecutive year, mainly due to reduced provincial education tax.

While goods prices decelerated by -1.6% as prices at the pump fell, prices for services rose 4.6% last month, primarily driven by higher prices for travel tours, rent and property taxes.

While grocery prices remained elevated, they also continued their trend of slower year-over-year growth, with a 5.4% increase in October following a 5.8% gain in September. While deceleration continued to be broad-based, fresh vegetables (+5.0%) contributed the most to the slowdown.
Excluding food and energy, inflation fell to 2.7% in October, down a tick from the September reading. Two other inflation measures closely tracked by the Bank of Canada–the so-called trim and median core rates–also eased, averaging 3.6% from an upwardly revised 3.8% a month earlier.
Bottom Line

According to Bloomberg calculations, another critical measure, a three-month moving average of underlying price pressures, fell to an annualized pace of 2.96% from 3.67% a month earlier. It’s an important metric because Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said policymakers are tracking it closely to understand inflation trends.

Today’s news shows that tighter monetary policy is working to bring down the inflation rate. In its Monetary Policy Report last month, the Bank of Canada expected the CPI to average 3.5% through mid-2024. Cutting its economic forecast, the Bank forecasted it would hit its 2% inflation target in the second half of 2025.

Given today’s data and the likely significant slowdown in Q3 GDP growth, released on November 30, and the Labour Force Survey for November the following day, policy rates have peaked. Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech on the cost of high inflation in New Brunswick tomorrow, and the subsequent decision date for the Governing Council is December 6th. The Bank’s inflation-chopping rhetoric may be relatively hawkish, but the expectation of rate cuts could spur the spring housing market.

The economists at BMO have pointed out that “three provinces now have an inflation rate below 2%, while only three are above 3%, so much of the country is already seeing serious signs of stabilization. (Unfortunately, the two largest provinces have the fastest inflation rates—Quebec at 4.2% and Ontario at 3.3%).” There is no need for the Bank to raise rates again, and they could begin to cut interest rates in the second quarter of next year.  

 

Written by:  Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres

How high will interest rates go in Canada? Could they reach double digits?

General Christopher Rooke 1 Aug

If you are considering buying a home in the next 4 months or you have mortgage coming up for renewal in the next 6 months you should probably be speaking to someone about it sooner rather than later.  There is still a lot of upward pressure on interest rates and you might want to obtain a rate hold to protect yourself against any additional rate increases.  A good rule of thumb for a renewal is that your new mortgage payment will rise ~$14 x every quarter point increase x every $100K in mortgage debt outstanding.  

 

Written by:  Aditya Nain & Published in Moneysense on July 28, 2023

Interest Rates Will Stay Higher For Longer

General Christopher Rooke 12 Jul

The Bank of Canada hiked the overnight rate for the tenth time today to a 22-year high of 5%. They also postponed their forecast of when inflation will hit the 2% target by six months to mid-2025. This means interest rates will stay higher for longer.

 

The Bank of Canada increased the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points this morning to 5.0%, its highest level since March 2001. Never before has a policy action been so widely expected. Still, the Bank’s detailed outlook in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) suggests stronger growth and a longer trajectory to reach the 2% inflation target. The Bank of Canada believes the economy is still in excess demand and that growth will continue stronger than expected, supported by tight labour markets, the high level of accumulated household savings, and rapid population growth. “Newcomers to Canada are entering the labour force, easing the labour shortage. But at the same time, they add to consumer spending and demand for housing.”

The Bank forecasts GDP growth to average 1.0% through the middle of next year–a soft landing in the economy. “This means the economy moves into modest excess supply in early 2024, and this should relieve price pressures. CPI inflation is forecast to remain about 3% for the next year, before declining gradually to the 2% target in the middle of 2025.” This is about six months later than the Bank expected in April. This means that high-interest rates remain higher for longer.

While Canadian inflation has fallen quickly, much of the downward momentum has come from lower energy prices and base-year effects as large price increases last year fall out of the year-over-year inflation calculation. We are still seeing large price increases in a wide range of goods and services. Our measures of core inflation—which we use to gauge underlying inflationary pressures—have come down, but not as much as we expected.
There continue to be large price increases in a wide range of goods and services. Measures of core inflation have come down, but by less than expected (see chart below). One measure of core inflation–which removes food, energy and shelter prices, remains elevated and will likely continue to be sticky.

To remove base effects, the Bank looks at three-month rates of core inflation, which have remained at 3.5% to 4.0% since September 2022, almost a percentage point above the Bank’s expectations at the beginning of this year.

In addition, labour markets remain tight. Although the jobless rate has risen to 5.4%, that is still low by historical standards. The unemployment rate was at 5.7% when the pandemic began, which was considered close to full employment at the time. Job gains have been robust, with about 290,000 net new jobs created in the first six months of 2023. Many new entrants to the labour market have been hired quickly, and wage growth has been about 4% to 5%.
The faster-than-expected pickup in housing resales, combined with a lack of supply, has pushed house prices higher than anticipated by the Bank of Canada in January (see chart below). According to the MPR, “the previously unforeseen strength in house prices is likely to persist and boost inflation by as much as 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2023, compared with the January outlook.”
Bottom Line

As always, the next steps by the Bank of Canada will be data-dependent. Interest rates will remain higher for longer if the Bank is correct that inflation will not reach its 2% target until 2025. We also cannot rule out more rate hikes in the future. This morning, the US inflation data for June were released, showing a marked decline from 4% in May to 3% in June. Markets rallied worldwide, taking Canadian bond yields down despite the BoC tightening. The hardship caused by the continued rise in mortgage rates is already evident. OSFI recently announced the possibility of higher capital requirements for federally insured financial institutions on mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 65% that have unusually high amortizations. This proposal is now out for consultation. It seems OSFI and the federal consumer watchdog are working at cross purposes.

Written by: Dr. Sherry Cooper,  Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres

 

 

It’s a Close Call Which Way the Bank Will Go

General Christopher Rooke 7 Jul

Will the Bank of Canada raise its benchmark interest rate yet again when they meet on July 12th?  The latest unemployment figures show that unmemployment was up a modest 0.2% this month but Canada also added 60,000 jobs which continues to fuel economic growth.  Mixed signals indeed!  So, will we see in increase in the Bank of Canada rate to 5.0%? 

 

 

Employment growth last month came in at a whopping 60,000 jobs, tripling expectations, and most of those net new jobs were for full-time workers. As our population grows, more people are available to fill job vacancies. Employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (+33,000), manufacturing (+27,000), health care and social assistance (+21,000) and transportation and warehousing (+10,000). Meanwhile, declines were recorded in construction (-14,000), educational services (-14,000) and agriculture (-6,000).
The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.4% in June, following a similar increase (+0.2 percentage points) in May. The increase brought the rate to its highest level since February 2022 (when it was also 5.4%). There were 1.1 million people unemployed in June, an increase of 54,000 (+4.9%) in the month.

The population grew by 0.3%, the labour force rose by 0.5%, and employment increased by 0.3%. The participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 65.7%.

Despite the successive increases in May and June, the unemployment rate in Canada remained below its pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 5.7% recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.
One thing the Bank of Canada will be happy about is that wage inflation slowed to 4.2% on a year-over-year basis following four consecutive months of more than 5% wage growth. This is good news for the Bank, but not good enough given that wages are still rising at more than double the inflation target of 2.0%.
Bottom Line

Traders are now betting that there is a 70% chance that the Bank of Canada will hike the policy rate by 25 basis points on July 12, taking the overnight rate to 5.0%. Given that many consumers are feeling the pinch of rising prices, and the June housing data appears to have softened, at least in the GTA, the Bank could surprise us again by remaining on the sidelines. After all, inflation fell to 3.4% in May, and the Business Outlook Survey softened broadly, particularly regarding hiring intentions.

In contrast, the latest monthly GDP report showed an uptick in growth in May. Remembering that Q1 growth came in nearly one percentage point above the Bank’s forecast in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and all six Canadian bank economists are forecasting a rate hike, the Bank might want to take out a bit more insurance that inflation will return to the 2% target next year.

A fresh MPR will accompany next week’s policy announcement and press conference. It’s unclear which way the Bank will go, but the odds favour a rate hike.

Written by: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres

May inflation numbers were good, but were they good enough for the BOC?

General Christopher Rooke 28 Jun

The latest CPI report shows inflation fell in May to 3.4% from 4.4% in April.  On the surface that look like a great result and we are heading in the right direction.  However, a look under the surface reveals we still have a long way to go.  Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres looks behind these numbers to explain why there is a better than even chance we will see another interest rate hike when the Bank of Canada meets on July 12th.   

 

The May inflation data, released this morning by Statistics Canada, bore no surprises. The year-over-year (y/y) inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.4% was just as expected–down a full percentage point from the April reading. This is the smallest increase since June 2021. Economists hit this one on the head because we knew dropping the April 2022 figure from the y/y calculation would considerably lower May inflation.

By May of last year, y/y  inflation had already risen sharply to 7.7%, mainly due to dramatic energy price increases reflecting the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Inflation peaked at 8.1% in June ’22, suggesting low inflation next month as well. This is why the Bank of Canada predicted that inflation would fall to 3% by this summer.

Taking inflation down to 3% will likely be easier than the drop from 3% to 2% because the low-hanging fruit has already been harvested. Many service prices are a lot stickier than the price of commodities and durable goods.

The May inflation slowdown was primarily driven by the 18.3% y/y plunge in gasoline prices resulting from the base-year effect. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.4% in May, following a 4.9% increase in April. A drop in natural gas prices (-3.5%) also contributed to the energy price deceleration.

Prices for durable goods grew at a slower pace year over year in May, rising 1.0% after increasing 2.2% in April. The increase in May is the smallest since May 2020 and coincided with easing supply chain pressures compared with a year ago. This was reflected in furniture prices (-2.9%), which fell by the largest amount since June 2020, and passenger vehicle prices (+3.2%), which showed the smallest increase since February 2021.
Grocery prices remain elevated–up 9.0% y/y–down only one tick from April. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose slightly faster year-over-year in May (+6.8%) than in April (+6.4%), amid ongoing elevated labour shortages, input costs and expenses, which Stats Can data show job vacancies can disproportionately affect these businesses.

Rising interest rates also boost inflation. This is because mortgage costs are just over 3% of the CPI. They are a part of the most significant component of the index–shelter–which represents almost 30% of the index. The mortgage interest cost index rose by a whopping 29.9% in May, following a 28.5% increase in April. This was the largest increase on record for the third consecutive month, as Canadians continued to renew and initiate mortgages at higher interest rates. And, of course, this does not include the effects of the policy rate hike in June.

It takes time for the full effect of interest rate hikes entirely feed into the CPI. Mortgage interest costs will continue to rise as higher interest rates flow gradually through to household mortgage payments with a lag as contracts are renewed. And home-buying related expenses ticked higher in May, with higher home resale prices increasing realtor and broker commissions.

Bottom Line

Achieving the 2% inflation target will take some effort. The Bank of Canada continues to be concerned that the Canadian economy remains too hot. Although unemployment relative to job vacancies has recently started to rise, the Bank remains troubled that excess demand will continue to push some prices upward. This is the cyclical component of inflation–inversely correlated with the unemployment rate–a version the Fed calls ‘supercore’ inflation. Supercore includes household services such as haircuts, personal care, babysitting, restaurant meals, travel, accommodation, recreation and entertainment.

It is roughly the CPI-trim (which filters out extreme price movements that might be caused by severe weather and other temporary factors) minus the price of food, shelter and energy. This measure has fallen less than the other core measures. Supercore inflation is about 5.5% y/y, compared to CPI-trim at 3.8%,CPI- median at 3.9% (see the chart below).

Looking at the recent monthly trends on a three-month annualized basis, CPI-trim was at 3.8% in May, down from 3.9%, and CPI-median was at 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April.

This is why the Bank of Canada emphasizes labour market data and overall spending measures. We will get two more important Statistics Canada releases before the July 12th BoC decision: the June 30th  monthly GDP number for April and the all-important Labour Force Survey on July 7th. Unless these data show a meaningful economic slowdown or a rise in unemployment, the odds of another BoC rate hike are about 60%.

 

Written by: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist-Dominion Lending Centres

 

Good News Is Bad News For The Bank Of Canada

General Christopher Rooke 1 Jun

I thought you might find this article and Dr. Sherry Cooper’s insights particularly interesting since we have been experiencing a pause in the Bank of Canada rate hikes.
She discusses a number of factors that might cause the Bank of Canada to raise rates once again when they meet on June 7th.

 

 

The Canadian economy continues to show marked resilience to high-interest rates. Statistics Canada released data this morning showing real GDP rose at an above-consensus 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year. The estimate for April growth was also firm, a harbinger of continued strength in Q2. The combined drags of the public sector strike and the Alberta wildfires didn’t cause a significant downdraft.

First-quarter growth was driven by strong international trade and robust household spending. These factors were partly mitigated by slower inventory accumulation and declines in new housing construction and business investment in machinery and equipment.

After two quarters of minimal growth, household spending rose for goods (+1.5%) and services (+1.3%) in the first quarter of 2023. Expenditures on durable goods (+3.3%) were driven by motor vehicles, including new trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles (+7.8%). Spending on semi-durables (+4.3%) was led by garments (+4.5%), while spending on non-durable goods (-0.2%) declined slightly.

Service spending picked up in the first quarter of 2023, led by food and non-alcoholic beverage services (+4.4%), and alcoholic beverage services (+6.5%). Meanwhile, travel was on the rise, with expenditures by Canadians abroad up 6.8% in the first quarter, compared with a 3.3% decrease in the previous quarter.

These data do not portend a household sector overly burdened by rising mortgage and credit card payments.

Coinciding with higher borrowing costs and slowing mortgage borrowing, housing investment fell 3.9% in the first quarter of 2023, the fourth consecutive quarterly decrease. The decline in investment was widespread—as new construction (-6.0%), renovations (-2.1%), and ownership transfer costs (-1.5%), which represents resale activity, were all down.

We know housing activity has picked up considerably since the first quarter, undoubtedly adding to Q2 growth. Also expansionary is the persistent rise in employee compensation, led by salary gains in professional and personal services, manufacturing and construction.

One warning sign is the declining household savings rates and slower disposable income. Persistently high interest rates had a predominantly negative effect on net property income, as increases in interest income (+6.4%), mainly from deposits, did not keep pace with higher interest payments on mortgages (+14.7%) and consumer credit (+10.9%).

In contrast with lower disposable income, consumption expenditures (in nominal terms) rose 2.1% in the first quarter of 2023. This was faster than the 1.4% pace recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022, partly due to inflationary pressures. As a result, the household saving rate was 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023, down from 5.8% at the end of 2022. The household saving rate approached the pre-pandemic level, which averaged 2.1% in 2019.

Business incomes fell significantly in Q1, and judging from the stock market, corporate earnings news has also been disappointing across a wide array of sectors in the second quarter.

 

Bottom Line

The strength in today’s data and the higher-than-expected inflation number for April will cause the Bank of Canada to seriously consider raising the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% when they meet again next week. I think they will hold off to see the May employment and inflation data before they pull the trigger.

Markets have already responded to the numbers. Short-term interest rates remain well above levels posted earlier this year, although that is mainly about the debt-ceiling issue in the U.S. The Bank’s statement will undoubtedly be rather hawkish.

 

Written by: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist-Dominion Lending Centres

In Search of Financial Wellness?

General Christopher Rooke 29 May

How would you rate your “financial wellness”?  What exactly is financial wellness and how does it impact your stress level and your mental health?  Could the impact of poor financial health be taking a greater toll than you realize?  Click the link below to learn more about what you can do to better understand the factors that underscore your financial wellness.

 

Financial wellness is fast becoming the latest buzzword as soaring inflation and interest rates pile the pressure on Canadians. There is a strong connection between mental health and financial health, and financial stress is taking a heavy toll. So, what exactly does it mean to be “financially well”?

Financial wellness is described as a state of well-being where an individual or a household has achieved financial stability and is able to meet their current and future financial obligations without undue stress. Financial wellness is not about being rich, having a certain amount of net worth, nor achieving a specific financial goal. Rather, it is about having a sense of security and confidence in your financial capability and being able to manage financial issues, challenges and opportunities as they arise over time.

Financial wellbeing is a function of many different factors. Income is obviously a critical element, but it also depends heavily on how well we are able to manage our money. These tasks include budgeting, managing debt, and investing and planning our retirement. The degree to which we are able to handle these tasks successfully depends on our level of personal financial literacy and our ability to make informed decisions, solve financial problems, and manage financial risk.

The heightened stress and anxiety cause by poor financial wellness has significant effects on many aspects of our life including poor job performance and relationship issues.

How do you measure financial wellness?

Financial wellness can be measured in a number of ways, but it is often a feeling rather than some sort of tangible number. A financial health assessment is a comprehensive evaluation that involves reviewing income, expenses, debt, savings, investments, insurance coverage, and other financial assets and liabilities. It identifies areas of strength and weakness and provide insights into how to improve overall financial well-being.

A financial stress tests involve evaluating an individual’s or household’s ability to withstand financial shocks or unexpected events, such as a job loss or medical emergency. Financial stress tests can help identify potential vulnerabilities in one’s financial situation and provide insights into how to build financial resilience.

Financial behavior analysis involves examining an individual’s or household’s financial behavior and decision-making processes. It can help identify patterns of behavior that may be contributing to financial stress or instability, such as overspending or not saving enough.

Overall, measuring financial wellness is a complex process that requires taking into account multiple factors and indicators. Different methods may be appropriate for different individuals or households, depending on their specific financial circumstances and goals.

How can I improve my financial wellness?

There are plenty of options for improving your financial wellness and most of them revolve around bettering your financial literacy skills to effectively tackle expenses, use credit wisely, manage debt, save money, and build long-term wealth and security through investing. Working with a financial coach or financial planner can also provide the knowledge and support needed to achieve your financial goals.

In addition to individual actions, there are also broader solutions that can support financial wellness at the societal level. These may include policies that promote income equality, affordable housing, and access to financial services, as well as financial education in schools and employee financial wellness programs.

2023 is shaping up to be another tough year financially for Canadians and financial wellness will continue to be elusive, especially if your financial literacy is lacking. The good news is there are a lot of resources available and many of them are free or low-cost. The largest hurdle for most of us is willpower and maintaining our motivation — achieving financial wellness is not a sprint. It can be a time-consuming, slow process and you may not see the results from your efforts until many months or many years down the road!

 

Written by: My DLC Marketing Team (May 2023)

The Spring Housing Market

General Christopher Rooke 16 May

Is the lack of inventory in the housing market driving prices to the point that entry is difficult for many?   Prices rose pretty much accross the board in April and the growth in our population is another added factor as people search for homes.  See the MLS Home Price Index to see how home prices have trended in your location and read about Dr. Sherry Cooper’s thoughts on the market and where interest rates may be headed.  

 

 

 

Vital Spring Housing Market Bodes Well For The Economy

The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in April surged 11.3% month-over-month. The Spring rebound was on the heels of smaller back-to-back gains in the prior two months. Now that the Bank of Canada paused interest rate hikes and home prices in most regions have softened, homebuyers are scrambling for the minimal available housing supply.Following the trend in recent months, the sales increase was broad-based but once again dominated by the B.C. Lower Mainland and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Toronto home sales, for example, rose by 27% m/m. That’s the most significant monthly increase over the past two decades, besides the rebound from the 2020 Covid lockdowns.

The benchmark price of a Toronto home rose 2.4% to C$1.11 million in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The rise erased declines from earlier this year; prices are now up 0.5% year-to-date in the first four months of 2023.

New ListingsHousing inventory is not just low; it is extremely low, although more recent data suggest that new listings rose in the first week of May. The persistent lack of new listings is hurting home affordability.The number of newly listed homes edged up 1.6% month-over-month in April; however, the bigger picture is that the new supply remains at a 20-year low. The number of new listings hitting the Toronto market trailed far behind the 27% increase in sales at just 2.8%. That helped shrink the supply of houses on the market, which had built up over the past year by 12.3% and left the city’s active-listings-to-sales ratio, a measure of how competitive the market is for buyers, tighter than the historical average.

And Toronto’s housing market isn’t the only one seeing tighter supply and rising prices. Vancouver, long one of the country’s most expensive markets, also saw its benchmark price rise 2.4% last month.

With national sales gains vastly outpacing new listings in April, the sales-to-new listings ratio jumped to 70.2%, up from 64.1% in March. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1%.

There were 3.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2023, down half a month from 3.8 months at the end of March. The long-term average for this measure is about five months.

Home PricesThe Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) climbed 1.6% month-over-month in April 2023 – a significant increase for a single month. It was also broad-based. A monthly price rise from March to April was observed in most local markets.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $716,000 in April 2023, down 3.9% from April 2022 but up $103,500 from January 2023, a gain owed to outsized sales rebounds in the GTA and B.C. Lower Mainland.
Bottom Line

A turnaround in the Canadian housing market is in train. While inventory remains extremely low, homes are not only selling but also selling fast. Short-term fixed-rate mortgages are popular with buyers. A significant change from before the Bank of Canada started raising rates.

While the Bank will likely hold rates steady for the remainder of this year, I do not expect Macklem to cut rates before then. All of this depends on inflation. We will get another read on inflation tomorrow.

The fact that labour markets are still strong and housing activity is picking up has got to make the Bank of Canada a wee bit nervous about inflation reaching the 2% target next year.

Another noticeable thing is the continued surge in the Canadian population, thanks to immigration, has worsened the housing shortage. The supply of new housing, especially affordable housing, is inadequate for the rapidly growing population. Moreover, a recent report by the C.D. Howe Institute’s Benjamin Dachis suggests there are major governmental impediments to providing adequate housing.

The Institute recommends:

  • Enable the non-political enforcement of municipal housing policies
  • Reform the fees on new development
  • ease restrictions on building up and out.

 

Written by: Dr. Sherry Cooper, Dominion Lending Centres Chief Economist

 

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